基于GM(1, 1)灰色预测模型的南通市初婚婚姻登记情况预测分析

Predictive Analysis of First Marriage Registration in Nantong Based on GM(1, 1) Gray Model

摘要: 本文基于2012~2019年南通市初婚婚姻登记数据的分析，预测2020~2025年南通市初婚婚姻登记情况。方法基于2012~2019年南通市初婚婚姻登记相关数据构建灰色GM(1, 1)预测模型，对南通市2020~2025年初婚婚姻情况进行预测分析。本文预测结果为2020~2025年南通市初婚婚姻登记对数总体呈递减趋势。结婚成本过高、女性职场意识不断觉醒、教育水平不断提高是南通地区结婚意愿较低的主要原因，可以通过建立连续的婚恋教育体系、构建婚恋友好型环境、完善生育配套政策和服务等方式来提高南通地区年轻人的结婚意愿。

Abstract: This paper focuses on analyzing the data of first marriage registration in Nantong from 2012 to 2019 and predicting the registration of first marriage in Nantong from 2020 to 2025. GM(1, 1) pre-diction model was constructed based on the data related to the registration of first marriages in Nantong from 2012 to 2019 to forecast and analyze the first marriages in Nantong from 2020 to 2025. The prediction result of this paper is that the number of first marriage registration pairs in Nantong City from 2020 to 2025 shows a decreasing trend in general. The high cost of marriage, the continuous awakening of women’s workplace awareness, and the increasing education level are the main reasons for the low willingness to marry in Nantong, and the willingness of young people to marry in Nantong can be improved by establishing a continuous marriage education system, build-ing a marriage friendly environment, and improving fertility supporting policies and services.