“悦己”还是“悦亲”——子女生育意愿的影响效应

“Make Oneself Happy” or “Make Loved Ones Happy”—The Influence Effect of Children’s Fertility Intention

摘要: 随着我国社会老龄化和少子老龄化特征日趋加深，本文将研究子女生育意愿的影响效应，同时通过子女自我诉求和满足父母要求不同层面进行分析。本文主要运用多元Logit回归模型对2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据进行分析。在子女自我诉求或是满足父母要求上，本文根据相关研究结果认为两者兼具，自我选择层面例如认为“男人以事业为重，女人以家庭为重”以及婚姻的幸福程度等会影响子女生育意愿，同时传统孝道层面例如子女生育意愿会受到“为了传宗接代，应该生个儿子”的影响，因此本文初步认为子女生育意愿影响因素既有自我诉求，又遵从传统孝道。然后对子女生育意愿进行一系列控制变量的影响因素分析，发现对未来的乐观态度、子女户口等均会影响子女生育意愿。基于此，本文提出新一代子女生育意愿的弱化需要政府、社会和家庭三股分力形成为子女搭把手的合力来改善，减轻其照顾老年人及养育子女的双重负担，同时尊重子女生育意愿的选择权利。

Abstract: With the aging of Chinese society and the aging of fewer children increasingly deepening, this paper will study the impact of children’s fertility intention, and analyze it from different aspects of children’s self-appeal and parental satisfaction. In this paper, a multiple Logit regression model was used to analyze the data of the 2017 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS). In terms of children’s self-appeal or meeting their parents’ demands, this paper holds that both are combined according to relevant research results. In terms of self-selection, for example, “Men put career first, women put family first” and marital happiness affect children’s fertility intention. At the same time, the traditional filial piety level, such as children’s fertility willingness, will be affected by “In order to carry on the family line, a son should be born”. Therefore, this paper initially believes that the influencing factors of children’s fertility willingness are both self-appeal and traditional filial piety. Then, a series of control variables were analyzed, and it was found that optimism about the future and children’s household registration would affect children’s fertility intention. Based on this, this paper proposes that the weakening of the reproductive will of the new generation of children needs the government, society and family to form a joint force to help the children, reduce the double burden of caring for the elderly and raising children, and respect the right of choice of children’s reproductive will.