住房状况对育龄群体生育意愿的影响——来自CSS2019数据的实证分析

The Influence of Housing Conditions on Childbearing Willingness of Childbearing Age Groups—Empirical Analysis from CSS2019 Data

摘要: 生育意愿的影响因素是很复杂的，而作为众多影响因素之一的住房状况对生育意愿的重要程度则不言而喻，但是住房状况从哪些途径影响到生育意愿仍然有待观察。本文使用CSS2019年的数据，建构了多元线性回归模型，采用人口学因素和社会经济因素作为控制变量，分析了住房状况中的住房环境质量与住房性质对育龄群体生育意愿的影响，着重对育龄群体住房状况与其生育意愿之间的内在机制进行实证分析，揭示住房状况与育龄群体生育意愿之间的更深层次的关系。结果显示，住房状况对育龄群体的生育意愿具有显著的影响。其中住房环境质量和住房性质对生育意愿呈现出显著的正向影响，即住房环境质量越好，育龄群体的生育意愿越高，拥有自有住房的育龄群体的生育意愿会显著高于没有自有住房的群体，因此可以从改善住房条件以及提供购房优惠等方面给予育龄群体一些必要的补贴以提高生育意愿。

Abstract: The influencing factors of fertility willingness are very complex, and the importance of housing status as one of many influencing factors to fertility willingness is self-evident. However, it remains to be seen how housing status affects fertility willingness. This paper uses the data of CSS2019 to construct a multiple linear regression model, using demographic factors and socioeconomic factors as control variables, to analyze the impact of housing environment quality and housing properties on the willingness of childbearing age groups to bear children, focusing on childbearing age groups. An empirical analysis of the internal mechanism between housing conditions and their willingness to bear children reveals a deeper relationship between housing conditions and the willingness to bear children of childbearing age groups. The results show that housing status has a significant impact on the willingness of childbearing age groups to bear children. Among them, the quality of the housing environment and the nature of the housing have a significant positive impact on the willingness to bear children, that is, the better the quality of the housing environment, the higher the willingness of childbearing age groups to bear children, and the willingness to bear children of childbearing age groups with self-owned housing will be significantly higher than those without self-owned housing. Therefore, some necessary subsidies can be given to groups of childbearing age in terms of improving housing conditions and providing housing discounts to increase their willingness to bear children.