心理预防视角下的改进SEIR网络谣言传播模型研究

Research on Improved SEIR Network Rumor Propagation Model from the Perspective of Psychological Prevention

摘要: [目的/意义]：为了探究用户心理预防水平影响谣言传播的途径，进而获取网络谣言防控的新方法，最终使得互联网治理水平得到持续稳固提升。[方法/过程]：通过对传统SEIR模型进行改造，采用数值型的控制仿真实验方法，从用户心理预防水平、一般接触率以及初始传播人群占比等多个角度对谣言传播的影响路径进行分析。[结果/结论]：研究结果表明：通过对用户进行事前心理预防，确实能够从根本上抑制谣言传播；还发现在本研究的双免疫途径中，第一条免疫途径发挥较大作用；最后发现初始时大规模的传播可能会导致舆情峰值提高，但会加速事件进程。这为心理预防抑制谣言传播提供了理论支持和政策建议，也为当前愈发难控的网络谣言提供了一种基于心理预防理论的解决方案。

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance]: In order to explore the ways in which users’ psychological prevention level affects rumor spreading, and obtain new methods for online rumor prevention and control, the In-ternet governance level will be steadily improved. [Method/Process]: Through the transformation of traditional SEIR model, numerical control simulation experiment method is adopted to analyze the influence path of rumor propagation from the perspectives of user psychological prevention level, general contact rate and the proportion of initial spread group. [Result/Conclusion]: The re-sults show that: through the psychological prevention of users in advance, rumors can be funda-mentally suppressed; It was also found that the first immune pathway played a greater role in the dual immune pathways in this study. Finally, it is found that large-scale communication at the initial stage may lead to an increase in the peak of public opinion, but will accelerate the event process. This provides theoretical support and policy suggestions for psychological prevention to suppress rumors, and also provides a solution based on psychological prevention theory for the increasingly difficult network rumors.