基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的河南省卫生总费用预测研究

Study on the Forecast of Total Health Expenditure in Henan Province Based on Grey System GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 目的：分析预测河南省未来卫生总费用及其筹资结构，为政府相关部门提供科学依据和理论支撑，探讨医疗卫生事业的发展。方法：根据2012~2019年河南省卫生总费用相关数据，基于灰色系统理论，构建GM(1,1)预测模型，分析卫生总费用的变化趋势、筹资状况、所占GDP比重。结果：河南省卫生总费用及其占GDP比重逐年增加，其中政府、个人卫生支出占卫生总费用占比逐渐降低，社会卫生支出占卫生总费用占比继续呈现上升的趋势。结论：为区域卫生健康费用管理、筹资水平与结构优化提供科学依据，促进河南省公共卫生健康事业的发展。

Abstract: Objective: To analyze and predict the future total health expenditure and its financing structure in Henan Province, so as to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for relevant government departments, and to explore the development of medical and health undertakings. Methods: According to the data of total health expenditure in Henan Province from 2012 to 2019, a GM(1,1) prediction model was constructed based on the grey system theory, and the trend, financing status and proportion of total health expenditure in GDP were analyzed. Results: The total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP in Henan Province increased year by year, among which the proportion of government and individual health expenditure in total health expenditure gradually decreased, and the proportion of social health expenditure in total health expenditure continued to show an upward trend. Conclusion: It provides a scientific basis for the optimization of regional health cost management, financing level and structure, and promotes the development of public health in Henan Province.