基于线性模型方法的中国财政收入分析

Analysis of China’s Fiscal Revenue Based on Linear Model Method

摘要: 基于《中国统计年鉴》及海关总署内所收集的数据集，基于线性模型分析理论，分析研究了我国国内生产总值、税收收入、进出口贸易总金额、经济活动人口数量四个影响我国财政收入的影响，使用线性回归和逐步回归的方法建立统计模型，最后得出总的回归方程。并对得到的模型方程和参数进行相关假设检验，进行参数估计，通过结果分析，得出了影响我国财政税收的2个主要指标：税收、进出口贸易总额。最后结合所建立的模型进行模型诊断与预测。

Abstract: Based on the data set collected in the China Statistical Yearbook and the General Administration of Customs, based on the linear model analysis theory, the four influences of China’s GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, tax revenue, total amount of import and export trade, and the number of economically active people in China are analyzed and studied, and the statistical model is established by linear regression and stepwise regression methods, and finally the total regression equation is obtained. The relevant hypothesis tests of the obtained model equations and parameters are carried out, the parameters are estimated, and through the analysis of the results, two main indicators affecting China’s fiscal taxation are obtained: taxation and total import and export trade. Finally, the model diagnosis and prediction are carried out in combination with the established model.