基于脱钩评价模型研究地区水资源与社会经济协调发展

Study on the Coordinated Development of Regional Water Resources and Socio-Economy Based on Decoupling Evaluation Model

摘要: 基于冀川苏粤四省公报数据，研究分析四省2010~2020年水足迹组成、水资源利用情况、经济发展状况，并构建协调发展脱钩评价模型对水资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系进行评价，最后研究脱钩影响因素，并提出相关建议。结果表明：2010~2020年四省均为农业用水量最大，但水资源利用效率不断提高；产业结构组成不同导致了经济发展水平的差异。由脱钩状态分析可知，2010~2020年冀川两省脱钩弹性指数较为平稳，属于脱钩阶段；江苏省脱钩弹性指数波动较大，经历了由脱钩到负脱钩的转变；广东省经历了负脱向脱钩的发展，实现了由粗放型经济向可持续发展性经济的转型。在脱钩因素研究中发现，规模经济发展因素是四省水资源利用与经济协调发展的主要正向驱动因素。

Abstract: Based on data from the gazette of four provinces, Ji, Chuan, Su and Yue, this paper studies and analyses the composition of the water footprint, water resources utilization and economic development in the four provinces from 2010 to 2020, and constructs a coordinated development decoupling evaluation model to evaluate the relationship between water consumption and economic growth. The results show that: all four provinces have the largest water consumption in agriculture from 2010 to 2020, but the efficiency of water resources use is constantly improving; the different composition of industrial structures leads to differences in the level of economic development. From the decoupling state analysis, it can be seen that the decoupling elasticity indices of Hebei and Sichuan provinces were relatively stable from 2010 to 2020 and belonged to the decoupling stage; the decoupling elasticity indices of Jiangsu province fluctuated more and experienced a shift from decoupling to negative decoupling; Guangdong province experienced a negative decoupling to decoupling and achieved a transition from a rough economy to a sustainable economy. In the decoupling factor study, it was found that the economic development factor of scale was the main positive driver of the coordinated development of water resources use and economy in the four provinces.