基于FAHP改进风险矩阵的海外工业园项目风险研究

Risk Research of Overseas Industrial Park Projects Based on FAHP Improvement Risk Matrix

摘要: 海外工业园项目风险来源众多，其风险评估工作综合复杂，风险矩阵应用广泛，但缺点明显。文章为消除传统风险矩阵在评估过程中的不稳定性，采用Borda数和FAHP法对风险矩阵进行优化，以风险等级和各项风险事件的权重作为依据来对海外工业园区各项风险事件进行评估。文章以某中哈跨境工业园区项目为例，对建立的风险评估模型进行实证研究，研究结果表明：该工业园区整体风险水平为3.1633，风险水平一般，在识别的23项风险事件中，传染性疫情、通货膨胀为最重要的两项风险事件。实证研究结果验证了模型的可行性与有效性。

Abstract: There are many risk sources in overseas industrial park projects, and the risk assessment is com-plex. The risk matrix is widely used, but it has obvious shortcomings. In order to eliminate the in-stability of the traditional risk matrix in the evaluation process, this paper uses the Borda number and FAHP method to optimize the risk matrix, and evaluates the risk events of overseas industrial parks based on the risk level and the weight of each risk event. Taking a Sino-Kazakhstan cross- border industrial park project as an example, this paper conducts an empirical study on the estab-lished risk assessment model. The research results show that the overall risk level of the industrial park is 3.1633, and the risk level is general. Sexual epidemics and inflation are the two most im-portant risk events. The empirical research results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.