和田地区昆仑山北坡年径流量对气候变化的响应

Response of Annual Runoff to Climate Change on the Northern Slope of the Kunlun Mountains River in the Hotan Region

摘要: 分析了昆仑山北坡年径流量，出山口降水量的变化及昆仑山北坡平原区年平均气温，700~400 hPa气温、年降水量、极端降水日数、高温日数的响应。结果表明：近58a来，昆仑山北坡年径流量，出山口降水量；平原区年平均气温，700~400 hPa气温、年降水量、极端降水日数、高温日数呈上趋势。采用Mann-Kendall突变检验，累积距平方法，昆仑山北坡年径流量，出山口降水量的变化及昆仑山北坡平原区年平均气温，700~400 hPa气温、年降水量、极端降水日数、高温日数进行突变分析，结果表明；昆仑山北坡年径流量在2009年发生突变，出山口降水量2002年发生突变、平原区年平均气温1997年发生突变、高空700~400 hPa气温在1984年发生突变、年降水量2010年发生突变、极端降水日数1986年发生突变、高温日数2004年发生突变。和田地区昆仑山北坡700~400 hPa气温上升，高温日数、极端降水日数的增加、出山口降水增多是和田地区昆仑山北坡径流量增大的主要原因。

Abstract: Analyse the annual runoff on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain: the change of precipitation at the mountain pass and the response of the annual average temperature, 700~400 hPa temperature, annual precipitation, extreme precipitation days and high temperature days in the plain area on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain are analyzed. The results show that in the past 58 years, the annual runoff on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain and the precipitation at the mountain pass; annual average temperature in plain area; the temperature at 700~400 hPa, the annual water volume, the number of extreme precipitation days, and the number of high temperature days have an early rising trend. Mann Kendal catastrophe test, cumulative distance square method: the annual runoff on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain, the change of precipitation at the mountain pass and the annual average temperature in the plain area on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain: 700~400 hPa temperature, annual precipitation, extreme precipitation days and high temperature days are used for catastrophe analysis. The results show that; the annual runoff on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain suddenly changed in 2009, the precipitation at the mountain pass suddenly changed in 2002, the annual average temperature in the plain area suddenly changed in 1997, the high-altitude 700~400 hPa temperature suddenly changed in 1984, the annual precipitation suddenly changed in 2010, the extreme precipitation days suddenly changed in 1986, and the high-temperature days suddenly changed in 2004. The increase of 700~400 hPa temperature on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain in Hotan area, the increase of high temperature days, the increase of extreme precipitation days and the increase of precipitation at the mountain pass are the main reasons for the increase of runoff on the north slope of Kunlun Mountain in Hotan area.