常州市防洪减灾科学决策模型构建研究

Research on the Construction of Scientific Decision-Making Model for Flood Prevention and Mitigation in Changzhou City

摘要: 随着城市快速发展，各类灾害频繁发生，尤其是城市洪涝灾害的发生直接导致人员伤亡、财产损失，严重影响城市生活和生产秩序。因此，科学的城市防洪减灾决策是尽可能降低灾害损失的关键。本文首先介绍洪灾易损性的概念以及城市防洪减灾科学决策和洪灾易损性之间的关联；其次构建城市防洪减灾科学决策模型，基于灰色关联理想解法分析洪灾易损性；然后对常州市城市防洪减灾决策模型进行实证应用，对常州市各区的洪灾易损性进行等级划分；最终根据常州市各区洪灾易损性等级的划分提出常州市防洪减灾工程规划方案，包括小包围、中包围和大包围三种方案，为解决常州市城市防洪减灾重要问题，优化常州市城市防洪体系，保护城市居民人身财产安全作出贡献。

Abstract: With the rapid development of the city, all kinds of disasters occur frequently, especially the occurrence of urban flooding disasters directly lead to casualties and property losses and seriously affect the order of urban life and production. Therefore, scientific urban flood mitigation decision is the key to reducing disaster losses as much as possible. This paper firstly introduces the concept of flood vulnerability and the correlation between scientific urban flood mitigation decision and flood vulnerability; secondly, it constructs a scientific urban flood mitigation decision model and analyzes flood vulnerability based on the gray correlation ideal solution method; then empirically applies the urban flood mitigation decision model in Changzhou City and classifies the flood vulnerability of each district in Changzhou City; finally, according to the classification of flood vulnerability of each district in Changzhou City Finally, according to the classification of flood vulnerability of each district in Changzhou City, the flood mitigation engineering planning scheme of Changzhou City is proposed, including three schemes of small encirclement, medium encirclement and large encirclement, which can contribute to solving the important problems of urban flood mitigation in Changzhou City, optimizing the urban flood prevention system of Changzhou City and protecting the personal and property safety of urban residents.