昆仑山北坡和田河夏季流量对气候变化的响应

Response of Hotan River Summer Flow to Climate Change on the Northern Slope of Kunlun Mountains

摘要: 分析昆仑山北坡跟和田河夏季流量变化和它流域内0℃层高度，500 hpa气温、出山口降水量变化。结果显示：近56年来，昆仑山北坡0℃层高度呈下降趋势，夏季平均流量、500 hPa温度、出山口降水呈上升趋势。采用M-K突变检验、累积距平等方法，对夏季平均流量、0℃层高度、500 hPa气温和山区降水量进行突变分析，结果显示：1978年和田河夏季平均流量、昆仑山北坡0℃层高度发生了突变，出山口降水量在1987年发生突变，500 hPa气温在1979年发生突变。和田河流域夏季500 hPa温度上升、出出山口降水增多是和田河夏季平均流量增大的主要原因。

Abstract: The changes of summer discharge on the Northern Slope of Kunlun mountain and Hotan river and their responses to 0˚C layer height, 500 hPa temperature and precipitation at the mountain pass were analyzed. The results show that in the past 56 years, the 0˚C layer height on the Northern Slope of Kunlun mountain shows a downward trend, while the average summer discharge, 500 hPa temperature and precipitation on the mountain pass show an upward trend. Mann-Kendall mutation test and cumulative anomaly method were used to analyze the mean summer discharge, 0˚C layer height, 500 hPa air temperature and mountain precipitation. The average summer discharge of Hotan river and the 0˚C layer height on the Northern Slope of Kunlun mountain were abrupt in 1978, the precipitation at mountain pass was abrupt in 1987, and the temperature at 500 hPa was abrupt in 1979. The increase of 500 hPa temperature in summer and the increase of precipitation at the mountain pass are the main reasons for the increase of the average discharge of Hotan river.