应用型大学养老服务管理人才培养现状及需求预测研究——以上海市为例

Research on Current Situation and Demand Forecast of Endowment Service Personnel Training in Applied Universities—Taking Shanghai as an Example

摘要: 一个朝阳专业面对夕阳产业势必会遇到各种难题。当社会发展不再满足于量的堆积，本科阶段的养老服务管理专业应运而生，旨在培养懂养老、会管理的应用技术型人才。本文通过灰色模型GM(1,1)对社会所需养老服务管理人才进行预测，结果发现：建立的灰色预测模型精度大于95%，模型精度高、拟合度好，可用于中长期预测；预测2021~2030年我国65周岁以上人数不断增加，养老需求数量不断上升，到2030年上海市预计需求养老服务管理人才约1.66万人，增速不断提高，年均增速约8.9%；对养老服务管理人才培养提出了新的挑战。未来一段时间，养老服务人员数量的缺少仍是重点问题，高水平的养老服务队伍建设任重道远，养老服务管理专业的建设更需要产学研各界通力合作，突破应用型专业壁垒，不断提升养老服务管理专业建设水平。

Abstract: A sunrise major in the face of sunset industry is bound to encounter various difficulties. When the social development is no longer satisfied with the accumulation of quantity, the pension service management major at the undergraduate stage arises at the right moment, aiming at cultivating applied technical talents who understand pension and management. In this paper, the gray model GM(1,1) is used to predict the social needs of pension service management talents. The results show that: the established gray prediction model has a precision of more than 95%, with high precision and good fitting degree, which can be used for medium and long-term prediction; It is predicted that from 2021 to 2030, the number of people over the age of 65 in China will continue to increase, and the demand for elderly care will continue to rise. By 2030, Shanghai is expected to need about 16,600 elderly care service management personnel, with an increasing growth rate of about 8.9% annually. It puts forward new challenges to the training of elderly service management talents. In the future, the lack of pension service personnel is still a key problem, and there is a long way to go to build a high-level pension service team. The construction of pension service management re-quires the cooperation of all sectors of industry, university and research to break through the bar-rier of application-oriented specialty and constantly improve the construction level of pension ser-vice management specialty.