基于Markov链对上海市每日新增本土病例变化的预测

The Prediction of the Daily Change of New Local Cases in Shanghai Based on Markov Chain

摘要: 疫情防控是一项具有专业性、复杂性和全面性的系统性工作，上海市每日新增本土病例变化对上海疫情防控有着十分重要的意义，其单日新增变化趋势也是疫情防控的一项重要内容，为后续疫情防控起到关键的引领作用。本文依据Markov链相关定义及定理，引入Markov链以建立相应的模型，对上海市每日新增本土病例变化状态进行了预测，有利于动态改进疫情防控的流程，提高管理效率。

Abstract: Epidemic prevention and control is a professional, complex and comprehensive systematic work, the daily changes in new local cases in Shanghai are of great significance to the prevention and con-trol of the epidemic in Shanghai, and its single-day new change trend is also an important part of the epidemic prevention and control, playing a key leading role in the follow-up epidemic preven-tion and control. Based on the relevant definitions and theorems of Markov chain, this paper intro-duces Markov chain to establish a corresponding model, and predicts the change status of new local cases in Shanghai every day, which is conducive to dynamically improving the process of epidemic prevention and control and improving management efficiency.