北京市私人汽车拥有量的影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Private Car Ownership in Beijing

摘要: 北京市汽车消费行业进入快速发展时期，其中私人汽车消费对北京市汽车消费总量产生重要影响。为了北京市私人汽车消费市场平稳快速发展，研究影响北京市私人汽车拥有量的主要影响因素，本文选取了2000~2020年中国统计局公布的北京市私人汽车拥有量与其他相关影响变量数据，从经济、价格、人口、城市交通等多个维度进行分析。本文建立多元线性回归模型，使用逐步回归的方法，降低了解释变量间多重共线性问题，与其他传统算法模型相比，更能准确分析出关键解释变量的符号影响以及各变量的经济解释含义，最后利用Stata统计分析软件进行参数估计和相关检验，回归结果显示影响私人汽车拥有量的主要有效因素为人均国内总产值、每万人拥有公交车辆以及公路里程。其中人均国内生产总值和公里历程对北京市私人汽车拥有量有促进作用，每万人拥有公交车辆对北京市私人拥有量有抑制作用，最后文章从政府、企业、消费者等不同角度给予不同的意见。

Abstract: The automobile consumption industry in Beijing has entered a period of rapid development, in which private automobile consumption has an important impact on the total automobile consumption in Beijing. In order to ensure the steady and rapid development of the private automobile consumption market in Beijing, and to study the main influencing factors of the private automobile ownership in Beijing, this paper selects the data of private automobile ownership in Beijing and other relevant influencing variables published by the China National Bureau of Statistics from 2000 to 2020, and analyzes them from multiple dimensions such as economy, price, population, and urban transportation. In this paper, a multiple linear regression model is established. The method of stepwise regression is used to reduce the problem of multiple collinearity among explanatory variables. Compared with other traditional algorithm models, it can more accurately analyze the symbolic impact of key explanatory variables and the economic interpretation meaning of each variable. Finally, Stata statistical analysis software is used for parameter estimation and correlation testing, the regression results show that the main effective factors affecting private car ownership are GDP per capita, public transport per 10000 people and road mileage. Among them, the per capita gross domestic product and kilometers of experience can promote the private car ownership in Beijing, and the ownership of public transport vehicles per 10000 people can inhibit the private car ownership in Beijing. Finally, the article gives different opinions from different angles such as the government, enterprises and consumers.