中国老龄人口长期护理保险需求实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Demand for Long-Term Care Insurance for China’s Aging Population

摘要: 在老龄化程度进一步加深的今天，老年人护理问题已经成为十四五期间不容忽视的问题，为构架完善的长期护理保险体系以解决老龄人口护理缺失的问题，针对长期护理保险展开需求侧研究对于促进长期护理保险市场完善具有理论意义与现实意义。本文基于线性模型的构建对保险需求方特征与宏观环境两方面因素展开实证分析，发现社会保险支出、护理服务质量对于长期护理保险需求产生正向显著影响。家庭规模、利率水平对于长期护理保险需求产生负向显著影响。人均可支配收入、受教育程度、通货膨胀对长期护理保险需求的影响不显著。

Abstract: In order to construct a perfect long-term care insurance system to alleviate the lack of care for the elderly, it is of theoretical and practical significance to conduct demand-side research on long-term care insurance to promote the improvement of the long-term care insurance market. Based on the construction of a linear model, this paper empirically analyzes the demand-side characteristics of insurance and the macro environment, and finds that social insurance expenditure and quality of care services have positive and significant effects on the demand for long-term care insurance. Household size and interest rate level have a negative and significant effect on the demand for long-term care insurance. Per capita disposable income, education level, and inflation do not have a significant effect on the demand for long-term care insurance.