基于ROMNA模型的核酸混管检验问题及经济政策

Nucleic Acid Mixing Tube Test Problem and Economic Policy Based on ROMNA Model

摘要: 通过对混管检验和单管检验过程的分析，本文得出了检测时间与混管检验人数的关系，之后采用了SA模拟退火的算法对混管人数进行了迭代模拟，建立了最初的OMNA模型。通过观察模型，我们发现了最佳混管人数与感染率的近似负指数关系。接下来，本文运用MK突变分析、ARIMA时间序列模型初步得到当日的最佳混检人数为59人。考虑到混检人数过多对样本的稀释及误差作用，本文对模型进行了改进。如需要多轮检测，本文考虑使用SI模型对近60日的疫情人数进行函数拟合。考虑到医务人员在连续高强度的工作中存在工作效率低下的情况，本文拟定了Ln函数来表示医务人员的身体状况。本文还兼顾了危急感染率和可防控感染率，在兼顾医务人员的身体状况和疫情防控的情况下，将OMNA模型改进得到ROMNA模型，最终得到65日的实时最佳混检方案。最后，本文针对疫情防控要求给出了相应的经济政策，助力于国家经济的进一步恢复。

Abstract: Through the analysis of the mixed tube test and the single tube test process, the relationship be-tween the number of the test time and the mixed tube test was obtained, and then the SA simulated the mixed tube number by using the annealing algorithm, and the original OMNA model was established. By observing the model, we find an approximate negative exponential relationship between the optimal number of mixer and the infection rate. Next, the MK mutation analysis and ARIMA time series model were used to initially obtain the optimal number of mixed tests on that day of 59 people. Considering the effect of sample dilution and error caused by too many people in mixed inspection, the model is improved in this paper. If multiple rounds of testing, this paper uses the SI model to fit the number of outbreaks in nearly 60 days. Considering the inefficiency of medical staff in continuous high-intensity work, the Ln function is formulated to represent the physical condition of medical staff. This paper also takes into account the critical infection rate and the preventable and controlled infection rate. Under the physical condition of medical staff and the epidemic prevention and control, the OMNA model is improved to obtain the ROMNA model, which finally obtains the best real-time mixed test scheme of 65 days. Finally, this paper gives the corresponding economic policies for the epidemic prevention and control requirements, contributing to the further recovery of the national economy.