基于灰色关联分析法的人均卫生费用的影响因素分析——以上海市为例

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of per Capita Health Expenditure Based on Grey Relational Analysis—A Case Study of Shanghai

摘要: 为探究上海市人均卫生费用增长的强关联因素及各因素的影响排名。研究基于2010~2019年《上海市统计年鉴》与《中国统计年鉴》等统计资料中整理出的上海市人均卫生费用以及与该因素相关联的经济、社会人口、医疗卫生资源与服务等四类共计12个影响因素的具体数据，借助灰色关联模型对各个影响因素与人均卫生费用之间的关联度进行分析和排序。研究结果表明12个特征序列与参考序列的关联性均显著，其中经济因素中的“人均GDP”与“居民可支配收入”以及人口因素中的“老龄人口比例”与人均卫生费用表现出较高的关联性。故应关注提高人均GDP或提高居民可支配收入来对冲人均卫生费用增长带来的支出压力，同时继续完善分级诊疗等相关医疗体制改革，以妥善应对老龄化进程为人均卫生费用提高带来的推力，控制人均卫生费用的合理提升。

Abstract: To explore the strong correlation factors of per capita health expenditure growth in Shanghai and the influence ranking of various factors. The research is based on the statistical data of the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook from 2010 to 2019. It includes 12 influencing factors including Shanghai's per capita health expenditure, economy, social population, medical and health resources and services related to this factor. The grey relational model was used to analyze and rank the correlation between each influencing factor and per capita health expenditure. The research results show that the correlation between the 12 characteristic series and the reference series is significant, among which the "GDP per capita" and "disposable income of residents" in the economic factors and the "proportion of the elderly population" in the population factors are highly correlated with the per capita health expenditure. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to in-creasing per capita GDP or household disposable income to hedge the expenditure pressure caused by the growth of per capita health costs. At the same time, it is necessary to continue to improve the relevant medical system reform, such as hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, to properly cope with the push of the aging process for the increase of per capita health costs, and to control the rea-sonable increase of per capita health costs.