EC细网格十米风场数值预报在阿拉山口地区的释用评估

Evaluation of the Application of ECMWF Fine-Grid 10-Meter Wind Field Numerical Forecast in the Dzungarian Gate Region

摘要: 随着EC十米风场在大风预报中的准确率越来越高，也被愈来愈多的学者进行研究。选取阿拉山口市作为研究区域，基于2019~2020年的数据，利用TS评分评估EC十米风场预报值在阿拉山口的释用评估。结果表明EC集合预报系统对24小时里5~7级和8级及以上的大风具有较好的预报能力，而对48小时8级及以上的大风预报能力较弱，并且5~7级的产品间的TS评分值差异小，8级及以上产品间的TS评分值差异较大。对于同级的大风预报，大部分统计量产品随着预报时效的延长而小幅下降。EC十米风场对阿拉山口大风的起止时间、风速量级及落区的预报有较好的指示意义。因此深入研究环境相对恶劣的干旱、半干旱地区的大风特征揭示其区域分布特点、变化规律、形成机理及其全球变化背景下的发展情景对于防灾减灾、合理利用气候资源、改善生态环境是很有价值的。

Abstract: With the increasing accuracy of EC 10-meter wind field in gale forecast, more and more scholars are studying it. Based on data from 2019 to 2020, the TS score was used to assess the release of EC 10-metre Wind Alashankou in Dzungarian Gate. The results show that the EC Ensemble Forecast System has a good forecast ability for gale force winds of magnitude 5~7 and 8 and above in 24 hours, but a weak forecast ability for gale force winds of magnitude 8 and above in 48 hours, the difference of TS scores between products of grade 5~7 is small, and the difference of TS scores between products of grade 8 and above is large. For the same level of Gale Forecast, most statistical products decrease slightly with the extension of forecast time. The EC 10-meter wind field is a good indicator for the forecast of the onset and cessation time, wind speed magnitude and wind falling area of strong winds in Dzungarian Gate. Therefore, it is valuable to study the characteristics of Gale in arid and semi-arid areas and to reveal its regional distribution, change law, formation mechanism and development scenario under the background of global change for disaster prevention and reduction, rational use of climate resources and improvement of ecological environment.