四川省参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及敏感性分析
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration and Its Sensitivity Analysis in Sichuan Province
摘要: 研究四川省参考作物蒸散量(ET0)时空变化特征，有助于深刻认识四川地区农业水资源需求，为科学制定灌溉措施和提高农业水资源利用效率提供理论依据。本文基于1980~2010四川35个气象站逐日观测资料，采用Penman-Monteith公式模型计算ET0，并分析了其时空变化特征，结果表明：1) 近30年来四川省ET0整体呈增加趋势，但不同站点之间差异较大；ET0在空间分布上表现为从西向东逐渐增加的趋势，东部达州地区ET0最大，历年均超过1000 mm。2) Mann-Kendall突变检测表明年参考作物蒸散量在2000年发生了显著的突变型增大，Morlet小波分析显示参考作物蒸散量存在15~20年的显著周期变化。3) 敏感性分析结果显示ET0对相对湿度的敏感程度(呈负值)最高，可见相对湿度是该地区ET0变化的主要影响因子。
Abstract: The study of the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is conducive to a profound understanding of the demand for agricultural water resources, and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of irrigation measures and the improvement of agricultural water resource utilization efficiency in Sichuan Province. Based on the daily observations of 35 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2010, ET0 is calculated by Penman-Monteith model, and its spatial-temporal change characteristics are analyzed. The results show that: 1) The overall trend of ET0 in Sichuan has shown an upward trend in the past 30 years. However, there are large differences of ET0 among regions. In terms of spatial distribution, ET0 increases from west to east and reach the maximum in the Dazhou region, which is more than 1000 mm over the years. 2) Mann-Kendall mutation detection shows that the annual ET0 has increased significantly in 2000, and Morlet wavelet analysis shows that ET0 has a significant periodic change from 15 to 20 years. 3) The sensitivity analysis results show that ET0 has the highest sensitivity to relative humidity (negative value), which shows that relative humidity is the main influencing factor of variation of ET0 in Sichuan Province.
文章引用：宋延杰, 吴远浩, 杨开怀, 王子豪. 四川省参考作物蒸散量时空变化特征及敏感性分析[J]. 自然科学, 2022, 10(6): 1123-1131. https://doi.org/10.12677/OJNS.2022.106125

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