基于层次分析法的宁波城市脆弱性综合指数评价

Comprehensive Index Evaluation of Urban Vulnerability in Ningbo Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

摘要: 宁波作为东南沿海及其重要的港口城市，对其脆弱性的成因以及动态变化趋势进行分析和评价，能够为降低城市的脆弱性和促进城市的可持续发展提供科学依据。层次分析法是将与决策有关的元素分解成目标、准则、方案等层次并在此基础上进行定性和定量分析的决策方法。本文运用层次分析法确定评价指标的权重，用综合指数评价法计算城市脆弱性指数。通过分析宁波市四个系统脆弱性和城市综合脆弱性的动态变化过程，可以得出：宁波市生态环境良好，经济运行发展良好，但社会基础设施投资与建设还有待提升；宁波市综合脆弱性指数从2012年到2021年呈现下降态势，表明宁波市的城市发展质量取得了极大的提高。

Abstract: As a southeast coastal city and an important port city, Ningbo’s vulnerability analysis and evalu-ation of the causes and dynamic trends can provide a scientific basis for reducing urban vulnerability and promoting urban sustainable development. The analytic hierarchy process is a decision-making method that decomposes the elements related to decision-making into levels such as goals, criteria, and schemes, and conducts qualitative and quantitative analysis on this basis. This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the evaluation index, and uses the comprehensive index evaluation method to calculate the urban vulnerability index. By analyzing the dynamic change process of four system vulnerability and urban comprehensive vulnerability in Ningbo, it can be concluded that Ningbo has a good ecological environment and good economic operation, but the investment and construction of social infrastructure still need to be improved. The comprehensive vulnerability index of Ningbo shows a downward trend from 2012 to 2021, indicating that the quality of urban development in Ningbo has been greatly improved.