基于ARIMA模型的陕西省粮食产量分析预测

Analysis and Prediction of Grain Yield in Shaanxi Province Based on ARIMA Model

摘要: 本文基于国家统计局官网关于陕西省2002~2021年的陕西省粮食产量数据，通过时间序列分析建立ARIMA模型进行拟合分析，利用建立的模型对2021年的预测值和实际值进行比较，相对误差为0.81%，远小于5%，表明模型拟合较好，利用ARIMA (0, 1, 1)模型对陕西省粮食产量进行预测，结果表明未来5年陕西粮食产量将持续稳步增长，平均年净增长值为13.48万吨，增长率为1.03%。

Abstract: Based on the grain yield data of Shaanxi Province from 2002 to 2021 on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the ARIMA model is established through time series analysis for fitting analysis. The established model is used to compare the predicted value with the actual value in 2021. The relative error is 0.81%, far less than 5%, indicating that the model fits well. The ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is used to predict the grain yield of Shaanxi Province. The results show that Shaanxi’s grain yield will continue to grow steadily in the next five years, with an average annual net growth value of 134,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.03%.