基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的上海市公立医院医疗费用分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of Medical Expenses of Public Hospitals in Shanghai Based on GM(1,1) Grey Prediction Model

摘要: 目的：分析和预测上海市公立医院人均医疗费用的变化趋势。为进一步推进上海市医疗费用改革提供政策建议。方法：从《中国卫生健康统计年鉴(2001年~2020年)》，从中提取了2011年~2020年上海市公立医院医疗费用的有关数据，并采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对数据进行分析与预测。结果：上海市公立医院人均门诊费用在不断地增加，从2011年的193.3元增加到2020年的265.3元，预计2029年将达到785.8元。其中，药费的占比在不断地降低，从2011年的74%，预计2029年将下降到29%；检查费占比总体上来说，呈现增长的趋势，从2012年的17%，预计2029年将达到20.96%。在住院费用中，总的人均住院费用仍然呈上升的趋势，从2011年的12897.7元增长到2020年的20871元，预计2029年将达到31903.92元。其中，药费的占比在不断地下降，从2011年的37%降到2020年的25%，预计2029年将达到14.52%；检查费占比在不断地提高，从2012年的6%，预计2029年将达到10.93%。结论：上海市公立医院的医疗费用将会持续增长，但是药费的占比将会下降，而检查费占比在逐年上升。

Abstract: Object: Analyze and predict the trend of per capita medical expenses in public hospitals in Shang-hai. To provide policy recommendations for further promoting the reform of medical expenses in Shanghai. Method: The data of medical expenses of public hospitals in Shanghai from 2011 to 2020 were extracted from China Health Statistical Yearbook (2001~2020), and GM(1,1) grey prediction model was used to analyze and predict the data. Result: The per capita outpatient cost of public hospitals in Shanghai is increasing, from 193.3 yuan in 2011 to 265.3 yuan in 2020, and is expected to reach 785.8 yuan in 2029. The share of drug costs has been declining, from 74 per cent in 2011 to an estimated 29 per cent in 2029; overall, the proportion of inspection fees shows an increasing trend, from 17 per cent in 2012 to 20.96 per cent in 2029. In the hospitalization expenses, the total hospitalization expenses per capita are still on the rise, from 12897.7 yuan in 2011 to 20871 yuan in 2020, and are expected to reach 31903.92 yuan in 2029. Among them, the proportion of drug costs is declining, from 37 % in 2011 to 25 % in 2020, and is expected to reach 14.52 % in 2029; the proportion of inspection fees is constantly increasing, from 6 per cent in 2012 to an estimated 10.93 per cent in 2029. Conclusion: The medical expenses of public hospitals in Shanghai will continue to grow, but the proportion of drug costs will decline, while the proportion of inspection fees will increase year by year.