山西省人口老龄化预测分析

Analysis of Population Ageing Projections in Shanxi Province

摘要: 近年来，山西省人口老龄化问题日益突出，老年人口数量迅速增加，重视并解决老龄化这一问题显得尤为重要。通过建立灰色GM(1, 1)模型，选取山西省2013年至2019年65岁以上人口的数据，来预测未来的老年人口数量。结果显示，在2021年至2025年期间，山西省的老年人数量将增加，未来的养老形势严峻。

Abstract: In recent years, population ageing in Shanxi Province has become increasingly prominent and the number of elderly people has increased rapidly, making it particularly important to pay attention to and address this issue of ageing. By building a grey GM(1, 1) model, data on the population aged 65 or above in Shanxi Province from 2013 to 2019 were selected to predict the number of elderly people in the future. The results show that the number of elderly people in Shanxi Province will in-crease between 2021 and 2025, and the future situation of old age will be severe.