2013~2020年重庆市流感时空流行病学特征分析

Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Characteristics of Influenza in Chongqing, China, 2013~2020

摘要: 流感是由流感病毒引起的急性呼吸道疾病，是一种十分严重的公共卫生突发事件。基于2013~2020年重庆市报告的流感病例数据，本文利用空间自相关和扫描统计来分析重庆市流感的时空特征。结果表明，重庆市流感年平均发病率为47.16/10万，2019年发病率最高；季节性高峰出现在每年的10月至2月。根据流感年度LISA聚类图，局部空间自相关分析发现热点集中在城口区，2014~2020年未发现热点；冷点地区集中在重庆中西部。空间扫描发现流感高发区有8个最可能聚集点和5个次要聚集点，主要集中在重庆东南部、中部和北部。纯时间分析显示，时间聚集在2019年11月至2020年1月。时空分析结果显示两个流感高发群，最有可能的19个区聚集在重庆中部。本研究通过发现流感的高发地区和高发时期，有助于制定重庆市流感防控规划，为完善流行病防控策略和措施提供科学依据。

Abstract: Influenza is an acute respiratory infection caused by influenza virus, which is a serious public health problem. Based on the reported cases of influenza in Chongqing from 2013 to 2020, spatial autocorrelation analysis and scanning statistics were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of influenza in Chongqing. During the period, the average annual incidence of influenza cases in Chongqing was 47.16/100,000, with the highest incidence in 2019, with the highest annual incidence in 2019. Seasonal peaks occur from October to February. According to the annual LISA cluster diagram of influenza, the local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that hot spots were concentrated in Chengkou, and no hot spots were found from 2014 to 2020. The cold spots are concentrated in the Midwest. The spatial scan identified 8 most likely aggregation points and 5 secondary aggregation points in the high incidence areas of influenza, mainly concentrated in the southeast, central and northern of Chongqing. Purely temporal analysis showed that the time aggregation frame was from November 2019 to January 2020. The spatial and temporal analysis revealed two high incidence clusters of influenza. The most likely cluster of 19 districts was located in the central part of Chongqing. This study found the areas and periods with high incidence of influenza, which is helpful for the development of influenza prevention and control planning in Chongqing and the scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies and measures.