基于GM(1,1)模型我国基本医疗保险基金结余的预测分析研究

Predictive Analysis of China’s Basic Medical Insurance Fund Balance Based on GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 医疗保障直接关系着国计民生，医疗保险基金平衡则是医疗保障工作安全平稳开展的重要经济基础。根据《中国劳动统计年鉴》中2010~2020年全国基本医疗保险基金及生育保险基金的收入、支出和结余情况，通过构建GM(1,1)模型，预测分析2023~2030年，全国的基本医保资金的结余发展趋势。结果表明，全国基本医疗保险的总体运行情况保持良好并继续向好，但是必须要预防医疗保险基金结余过多。今后国家仍要加强管理和控制基本医疗保险基金支出增长速度，进一步提高基本医疗保险基金结余利用效益，加强基金的监管力度，确保基金的可持续发展。

Abstract: Medical insurance is directly related to the people’s livelihood of the country, while the balance of medical insurance fund is an important economic foundation for the safe and smooth operation of medical insurance. Based on the income, expenditure and balance of the national basic medical insurance fund and maternity insurance fund from 2010 to 2020 in the China Labor Statistics Yearbook, a GM(1,1) model is constructed to forecast and analyze the development trend of the balance of the national basic medical insurance fund from 2023 to 2030. The results show that the overall operation of the national basic medical insurance remains good and continues to improve, but it is necessary to prevent the medical insurance fund from having too much balance. In the fu-ture, the country still needs to strengthen the management and control the growth rate of basic medical insurance fund expenditures, further improve the efficiency of basic medical insurance fund balance utilization, and strengthen the supervision of the fund to ensure the sustainable de-velopment of the fund.