基于ISM-MICMAC的装配式建筑绿色供应链风险分析

Risk Analysis of Prefabricated Building Green Supply Chain Based on ISM-MICMAC

摘要: 在绿色发展理念的背景下，装配式建筑绿色供应链是一种建筑业新型可持续发展模式。本文采用文献研究、调查问卷、灰色关联分析等方法识别出装配式建筑绿色供应链中的14个风险因素，结合Python运用解释结构模型(ISM)构建了装配式建筑绿色供应链影响因素的7级递阶结构模型，并运用交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)分析影响因素的驱动力和依赖性，并提出改进建议。结果表明：政策制度不完善和缺少绿色运行管理经验驱动力最强，是影响装配式建筑绿色供应链的深层次影响因素。利润分配不均、合作关系差和企业之间缺乏信任是最直接的影响因素，受其他因素影响较大，依赖性较强。本文为评估和降低装配式建筑工程项目绿色供应链中的风险提供了有效的方法。

Abstract: Under the background of green development concept, assembly building green supply chain is a new sustainable development model of construction industry. This paper uses literature research, questionnaires, grey correlation analysis and other methods to identify 14 risk factors in the green supply chain of prefabricated buildings. Combined with Python, it uses Interpretative Structural Modeling Method (ISM) to build a seven level hierarchical structure model of the influencing factors of the green supply chain of prefabricated buildings, and uses Matrices Impacts Croises-Multiplication Appliance Classement (Micmac) to analyze the driving force and dependence of the influencing factors, and puts forward suggestions for improvement. The results show that the imperfection of policies and systems and the lack of green operation management experience are the strongest driving forces, which are the deep-seated factors affecting the green supply chain of prefabricated buildings. Uneven profit distribution, poor cooperative relationship and lack of trust between enterprises are the most direct factors, which are greatly influenced by other factors and highly dependent. This paper provides an effective method to evaluate and reduce the risk in the green supply chain of prefabricated construction projects.