新冠疫情下中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易潜力分析

Analysis of Trade Potential between China and Countries along the “The Belt and Road” under the COVID-19

摘要: 新冠肺炎疫情导致了全球健康危机和深刻的经济衰退，本文在新冠肺炎疫情的背景下，分析研究中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易的贸易潜力。在沿线国家GDP、人口、贸易关税和贸易便利化等指标的基础上，添加卫生保健指数、医疗质量和可及性、防控指数一共10个指标，利用上述10个指标构造基于Linear kernel，Polynomial kernel，Radial Basis kernel和Laplacian kernel的高斯过程模型。根据RMSE评估指标得出，基于多项式核函数高斯过程回归效果最佳，进而用其对2020年出口值进行预测，分析中国与沿线国家间的出口潜力。

Abstract: The COVID-19 has led to the global health crisis and profound economic recession. In the context of the COVID-19, we analyze the trade potential of China’s trade with countries along the “the Belt and Road”. In addition to these variables of GDP, population, trade tariff, trade facilitation and other in-dicators of countries along the line, we add 10 indicators, including health care index, medical qual-ity and accessibility, and prevention and control index. Then above 10 indicators are used to con-struct a Gaussian process model based on the Linear kernel, the Polynomial kernel, the Radial Basis kernel, and the Laplacian kernel. According to the computation results, the regression effect of Gaussian process based on polynomial kernel function is the best, and then it is used to forecast the export value in 2020 and analyze the export potential between China and countries along the line.