比亚迪公司企业估值及其风险研究

Research on BYD’s Corporate Valuation and Risk

摘要: 发展新能源科技是缓解能源短缺的关键举措，也是实现碳中和目标的内在要求。对新能源企业合理估值及研究企业面临的金融风险，能够帮助企业实现最大化管理。首先从财务角度分析比亚迪企业面临的风险，其次采用FCFF和P/E模型对比亚迪企业进行估值，最后用GARCH-VaR和KMV模型度量目标企业的金融风险。研究发现：1) 比亚迪公司近两年的盈利能力有所提高；偿债能力较差，有偿债风险；企业具有一定的发展潜力，但是投资风险较大。2) FCFF模型很可能高估比亚迪公司企业价值而P/E模型很可能低估比亚迪公司企业价值。3) 比亚迪企业2019年以后市场风险逐渐增加，但是几乎不会发生违约风险。

Abstract: The development of new energy technology is a key measure to alleviate energy shortage, and is al-so an internal requirement to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Reasonable valuation of new energy enterprises and research on financial risks faced by enterprises can help enterprises achieve maximum management. First, analyze the risks faced by BYD enterprises from the financial perspective, then use FCFF and P/E models to evaluate BYD enterprises, and finally use GARCH-VaR and KMV models to measure the financial risks of the target enterprises. The research finds that: 1) The profitability of BYD has improved in recent two years; poor debt paying ability, with debt pay-ing risk; the enterprise has certain development potential, but the investment risk is high. 2) The FCFF model is likely to overestimate the enterprise value of BYD and the P/E model is likely to un-derestimate the enterprise value of BYD. 3) After 2019, the market risk of BYD enterprises will gradually increase, but there will be almost no default risk.