中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易效率影响因素研究

Study on the Influencing Factors of Trade Efficiency between China and Countries along “The Belt and Road Initiative”

摘要: 本文利用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型，对“一带一路”国家的贸易效率及其影响因素进行了实证研究。根据本文实证结果，得出以下结论：我国与“一带一路”沿线诸国产生的贸易额对我国贸易事业发挥着越来越大的影响；同时，各国的贸易效率两极分化现象严重，贸易效率最高的国家贸易效率值达0.876，贸易效率最低的国家其值仅0.015，相对值较大；且中国与“一带一路”沿线各国的贸易效率绝对值也存在相当大的增长空间，有19个国家的贸易效率值不足0.1；中国的经济规模和人均收入将显著促进双边贸易，而地理距离将对双边贸易产生负面影响；关税水平与贸易效率呈负相关关系，贸易便利化水平以及运输便利化水平则与贸易效率呈正相关关系，自由贸易协定的签署也将对贸易效率的提高发挥正向作用。基于上述结论，本文提出以下几条政策建议：加大力度促进我国整体经济发展，不断扩大经济规模、提高人均收入；大力推进基础设施建设、加快简化进出口流程；加大政策力度，因地制宜，全力进军中亚、东亚等相对空白的市场。

Abstract: This paper uses the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade inefficiency model to make an empirical study on the trade efficiency and its influencing factors in “The Belt and Road” countries. Based on the empirical results of this paper, the following conclusions are drawn: the trade volume between China and the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” has an increasing impact on China’s trade cause; at the same time, the polarization of trade efficiency among countries is serious. The trade efficiency of the country with the highest trade efficiency is up to 0.876, while that of the country with the lowest trade efficiency is only 0.015, which is relatively large. In addition, the absolute value of trade efficiency between China and countries along the “One Belt and One Road” also has considerable room for growth, with 19 countries’ trade efficiency of less than 0.1. China’s economic size and per capita income will significantly promote bilateral trade, while geographical distance will have a negative impact on bilateral trade. The tariff level is negatively correlated with trade efficiency, while the trade facilitation level and transportation facilitation level are positively correlated with trade efficiency. The signing of free trade Agreement will also play a positive role in improving trade efficiency. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: strengthen the efforts to promote overall economic development, expand the scale of economy, and improve the per capita income; we will vigorously promote infrastructure construction and speed up the simplification of import and export procedures. We should strengthen policies, adapt to local conditions, and try our best to enter the relatively empty markets in Central Asia and East Asia.