老龄化背景下河北省老龄人群与交通设施空间错位研究——以石家庄市为例

Research on Spatial Dislocation between the Elderly Population and Transportation Facilities in Hebei Province under the Background of Aging—Taking Shijiazhuang as an Example

摘要: 在积极应对人口老龄化战略下，城市老龄群体特别是高龄老年群体出行问题成为不容忽视的重要问题。本文选取石家庄市区为研究区域，人口数据来自石家庄统计局发布的六普和七普数据，交通设施数据来自高德POI数据爬取。用老年人口数量、老龄化率和老年人口密度三个指标，以此测算石家庄市区综合老龄化指数(CAI)，并通过对CAI模型、核密度函数模型和空间错位指数模型对石家庄市区人口老龄化空间分布及交通设施空间错位现象进行分析，结果表明：1) 与2010年相比，石家庄65岁及以上老年人口比重上升4.73个百分点，老龄化程度进一步加深。2) 通过CAI测算发现：桥西区、长安区和新华区综合老龄化指数增长较高，中心城区人口老龄化增长速度大于外围的行政区，其中长安区人口老龄化程度最为严重，井陉矿区老龄化程度最低，甚至出现负向发展，石家庄人口老龄化严重程度有向市中心集中的趋势。3) 通过空间错位指数计算可得知：中心辖区的交通设施较为集聚，城北区的养老资源分布合理但是数量较少，行政区之间的养老资源与老年人口分布存在较大空间错位问题。

Abstract: Under the strategy of actively coping with population aging, the travel problem of urban elderly groups, especially the oldest old, has become an important issue that cannot be ignored. In this paper, the urban area of Shijiazhuang is selected as the study area. The population data is from the sixth and seventh popular education data released by Shijiazhuang Bureau of Statistics, and the traffic facility data is from the Gaode POI data crawl. The comprehensive aging index (CAI) of Shijiazhuang urban area is calculated by using three indicators: the number of the elderly population, the aging rate and the density of the elderly population. The spatial distribution of population aging and the spatial dislocation of traffic facilities in Shijiazhuang urban area are analyzed by using the CAI model, the kernel density function model and the spatial dislocation index model. The results show that: 1) Compared with 2010, The proportion of the elderly aged 65 and above in Shijiazhuang increased by 4.73 percentage points, further deepening the degree of aging. 2) Through CAI calculation, it is found that the comprehensive aging index of Qiaoxi District, Chang'an District and Xinhua District has a relatively high growth rate, and the population aging rate in the central urban area is higher than that in the peripheral administrative areas. Among them, Chang'an District has the most serious population aging rate, Jingxing Mining Area has the lowest aging rate, and even shows a negative development. The population aging rate in Shijiazhuang tends to focus on the downtown. 3) From the calculation of the spatial dislocation index, it can be seen that the transportation facilities in the central area are relatively concentrated, the elderly care resources in Chengbei District are distributed reasonably but in a small number, and there is a large spatial dislocation problem between the elderly care resources and the elderly population distribution between administrative districts.