中国股票市场重大风险的生成机理——基于流动性供需失衡的理论阐释

Generation Mechanism of Major Risks in Chinese Stock Market—Theoretical Explanation Based on the Imbalance of Liquidity Supply and Demand

摘要: 本文基于中国股市流动性呈现出的特殊事实，从市场流动性供需失衡视角分析中国股票市场重大风险的形成机理。在短期，股票市场流动性供需失衡导致股市剧烈动荡，投资者短期记忆特征加强，导致股票市场呈现出高波动特征，而在长期，“股市高波动性–定价低效率”螺旋导致股票市场风险在危机期间呈螺旋式上升。最后，提出构建以市场流动性供需均衡为导向，从短期监测、中期调控、长期高效运行层面构建“三位一体”的股市重大风险治理机制。

Abstract: Based on the special facts of liquidity in China’s stock market, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of major risks in China’s stock market from the perspective of market liquidity supply and demand imbalance. In the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand of liquidity in the stock market leads to dramatic stock market turbulence, and investors’ short-term memory is strengthened, resulting in the stock market showing high volatility characteristics. In the long term, the spiral of “high volatility in the stock market-low pricing efficiency” leads to a spiral of stock market risks during the crisis. Finally, the paper proposes to build a “trinity” major risk management mechanism of the stock market based on the balance of supply and demand of market liquidity and from the level of short-term monitoring, medium-term regulation and long-term efficient operation.