边界层参数化方案对文昌近地层气温模拟的影响

Effect of Boundary Layer Parametric Scheme on the Simulation of Near-Surface Air Temperature in Wenchang

摘要: 为了选取适用于我国海南文昌地区气温预报的最优边界层参数化方案，本文利用中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)，采用美国国家环境预测中心分析资料(FNL)作为模式背景场，基于2015年1~12月的12个案例开展了近地层气温的边界层参数化敏感性实验。通过与文昌地面测风塔观测结果的对比，分析了10种边界层参数化方案在海南文昌的适用性。结果表明：1) WRF模式对海南文昌地区气温模拟存在较小的偏差，春夏季的模拟效果优于秋冬季。2) 一年中12月的模拟气温与实况偏差最大，模拟效果最差。3) 各高度24小时预报模拟效果最好的方案是BouLac方案。4) 通过对五种高度三种时效模拟结果进行分析，总体来说UW方案与实况偏差最小，模拟效果最好。TEMF方案偏差最大，模拟效果最差。

Abstract: In order to select the optimal boundary layer parametric scheme for temperature forecast, this paper uses mesoscale weather forecast model (WRF), using the national environmental forecasting center final analysis data (FNL) as a background field. Based on 12 cases from January to December 2015, the boundary layer parameterization sensitivity experiment of the near-ground temperature is carried out. The applicability of 10 kinds of boundary layer parameterization schemes in Wenchang, Hainan is analyzed by comparing them with the observation results of Wenchang wind tower. The results show that: 1) WRF mode has a small deviation on the temperature simulation in Wenchang, Hainan, and the simulation effect in spring and summer is better than that in autumn and winter. 2) In December, the simulated temperature and the actual deviation are the largest, and the simulation effect is the worst. 3) The scheme with the best 24-hour forecast and simulation effect of each height is the BouLac scheme. 4) Through analyzing the simulation results of three kinds of five heights, overall, the UW scheme is the least biased and the simulation effect is the best. The TEMF scheme has the largest deviation and the worst simulation effect.