济南市高精度机动车排放清单的研究

Research on High Precision Vehicle Emission Inventory in Jinan

摘要: 近年来，我国采取了一系列措施，包括升级机动车排放标准、推行新能源汽车等等，来控制机动车的污染物排放。但机动车的排放总量却没有减少，反而不断增加。针对这一问题，本文以济南市为例，首先计算济南市2021年的机动车污染物的总排放量，并对其分车型、分燃料类型的排放量进行分析，紧接着结合GIS技术和POI兴趣点对其进行分配，之后利用地理加权回归模型对污染物排放的影响因素进行分析。结果显示：重型货车在五种污染物排放中的占比都比较高；污染物排放的空间分布在靠近城市中心时为面源分布，而在非城市中心为线源分布；相比于海拔的影响，路网密度对污染物排放的影响更高。

Abstract: In recent years, China has taken various measures to control pollutant emissions from motor ve-hicles, such as upgrading motor vehicle emission standards and promoting new energy vehicles. However, the total amount of pollutant emissions from motor vehicles has not been reduced, but has been increasing. To face this problem, this paper takes Jinan city as an example, calculates the total pollutant emissions of motor vehicles in Jinan city in 2021, and analyzes their emissions by vehicle type and fuel type, then combines GIS technology and POI to allocate them, after which the allocation results are analyzed, and finally analyzes the influencing factors of pollutant emissions by using a geographically weighted regression model. The results show that: heavy trucks have a higher proportion of all five pollutant emissions; the spatial distribution of pollutant emissions is surface source distribution when close to urban centers, while it is line source distribution in non-urban centers; the influence of road network density on pollutant emissions is higher compared to the influence of elevation.