疏勒河与黑河流域气候变化特征及其差异

Characteristics and Differences of Climate Change in Shule River Basin and Heihe River Basin

摘要: 利用1970~2019年疏勒河与黑河流域共12个地面观测站的气温、降水等逐日观测资料，采用一元线性回归、克里金插值、Mann-Kendall法等方法对疏勒河和黑河流域气候变化特征进行分析，结果表明：1) 两流域气温和降水的时间变化均呈上升趋势。2) 两流域气温和降水空间分布分别呈西高东低、东多西少的特征。3) 疏勒河流域气温和降水量均与海拔呈负相关、与经度和纬度呈正相关；黑河流域气温与海拔呈负相关、与经度和纬度呈正相关，降水量与海拔和经度呈正相关、与纬度呈负相关。4) 近50年来，两流域气温发生突变的时间均为1994年；疏勒河流域降水量突变开始时间为1970和2019年，黑河流域为2012年。5) 两流域的极端高温指数呈上升趋势，持续干燥指数呈显著下降趋势；疏勒河流域容易发生极端高温事件、出现旱情，黑河流域更容易发生极端低温和极端降水事件。

Abstract: Based on the daily observation data of temperature and precipitation of 12 ground stations in Shule River and Heihe River basins from 1970 to 2019, the characteristics of climate change in Shule River and Heihe River basins are analyzed by using linear regression, Kriging interpolation, Mann Kendall method, etc. The results show that: 1) The temporal changes of temperature and precipitation in the two basins show an increasing trend. 2) The spatial distribution of air temperature in the two basins is high in the west and low in the east, and the precipitation is more in the east and less in the west. 3) The temperature and precipitation in Shule River basin are negatively correlated with altitude, positively correlated with longitude and latitude; the temperature in the Heihe River basin is negatively correlated with altitude, positively correlated with longitude and latitude, and the precipitation is positively correlated with altitude and longitude, negatively correlated with latitude. 4) In the past 50 years, the abrupt change in temper-ature in both basins occurred in 1994; the abrupt change in precipitation in the Shule River basin started in 1970 and 2019, and in the Hei River basin in 2012. 5) The extreme high-temperature index of the two basins shows an upward trend, and the continuous drying index shows a significant downward trend; the Shule River basin is prone to extreme high-temperature events and drought, and the Heihe River basin is more prone to extreme low-temperature and extreme precipitation events.