考虑居民响应行为的生活垃圾分类回收政策模拟仿真研究

Simulation Research on Household Garbage Classification and Recycling Policy Considering Residents’ Response Behavior

摘要: 目前，我国大多数城市如北京、上海都陷入了“垃圾围城”的困境。为了缓解生活垃圾给城市带来的各种威胁与挑战，对生活垃圾进行源头分类和回收利用是一种新的有效治理手段。本文综合分析了影响居民生活垃圾响应行为的因素，并运用SEM和离散选择模型，构建城市居民生活垃圾分类回收响应行为决策效用函数模型；在此基础上，利用Anylogic软件构建考虑居民响应行为的生活垃圾分类回收政策模拟仿真模型。以上海生活垃圾分类回收活动为样本，给出组合政策导入下的情景模拟结果，探索上海生活垃圾治理各模块及其相互作用机理，并提出促进上海生活垃圾智慧治理的相关管理政策建议。

Abstract: At present, most Chinese cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are in the predicament of “garbage siege”. In order to alleviate all kinds of threats and challenges brought by household garbage to the city, the source classification and recycling of household garbage is a new effective treatment method. This paper comprehensively analyzes the factors that affect the response behavior of urban household solid waste, and uses SEM and discrete selection model to construct the total decision utility function model of the response behavior of urban household solid waste classification and recycling. On this basis, Anylogic software is used to build a simulation model of household garbage classification and recycling policy considering residents’ response behavior. Taking Shanghai’s household garbage classification and recycling activities as samples, this paper gives the scenario simulation results under the introduction of combination policies, explores each module of Shang-hai’s household garbage management and its interaction mechanism, and puts forward relevant management policy suggestions to promote the smart management of Shanghai’s household gar-bage.