凯里市1960~2021年极值降水特征及重现期分析

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics and Return Period in Kaili City from 1960 to 2021

摘要: 凯里市是贵州省黔东南苗族侗族自治州州府所在地，是贵州省主要中心城市之一。采用线性趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法和皮尔逊III型方法对凯里市1960~2021年近62a极值降水进行特征及重现期分析。研究表明：年降水量变率为5.6 mm/10a，在2015年发生由少到多的突变，日最大降水量、1小时最大降水量、最大连续降水量年际变化趋势不显著，均没有发生突变；≥0.1 mm降水日数呈稳定缓慢减少趋势，变率为0.6 d/10a，在2011年发生由少到多的突变。最长连续降水日数、最长连续无降水日数、≥10.0 mm降水日数和≥50.0 mm降水日数变化趋势不显著，没有发生突变。年降水量、最大日降水量、1小时最大降水量、最大连续降水量、最长连续降水日数和最长连续无降水日数重现期值随着年限的增大，数值也明显呈皮尔逊III型分布增长趋势，日降水量重现期从5a~1000a增幅超过3倍，其余增幅在2倍左右。凯里市各极值降水特征变化规律研究成果对农业种植结构调整具有一定的参考意义。

Abstract: Kaili is the capital of Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture, and one of the main central cities in Qiandongnan Miao and Dong Autonomous Prefecture, Guizhou Province. The characteristics and return period of extreme precipitation in Kaili City from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed by linear trend analysis, M-K mutation test and Pearson III. The results show that the annual precipitation variability was 5.6 mm/10a, and there was an abrupt change from less to more in 2015. The interannual variation trends of daily maximum precipitation, hourly maximum precipitation and maximum continuous precipitation were not significant, and there was no abrupt change. The rainy days with daily rainfall ≥ 0.1 mm show a steady and slow decreasing trend, with a rate of 0.6 d/10a, and there was a sudden change from less to more in 2011. The trend of the longest continuous precipitation days, the longest continuous non-precipitation days, the rainy days with daily rainfall ≥ 10.0 mm and the rainy days with daily rainfall ≥ 50.0 mm was not significant, and there was no mutation. The return period of annual precipitation, maximum daily precipitation, 1 hour maximum precipitation, maximum continuous precipitation, the longest number of continuous precipitation days and the longest number of continuous non-precipitation days is also significantly Pearson III distribution growth trend. The return period of daily precipitation from 5a to 1000a increased more than 3 times, and the rest increased about 2 times. The return period can be used as an important reference for the call threshold of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation services.