基于最小二乘集成赋权模型的交叉口交通状态评价

Intersections Traffic Status Evaluation Based on Least Squares Method Combined Weighting Model

摘要: 为提高道路交叉口交通状态综合评价结果的全面性及准确性，研究出1种兼顾主客观权重优点的集成赋权模型，该模型基于最小二乘(least squares, LS)思想和矩估计理论建立改进LS集成赋权模型，更好弥补单一赋权模型的局限性，最大限度保留单一赋权结果中所反映出的指标重要度信息。在此基础上，通过组合权重–隶属度矩阵计算得到各路口交通状态综合评价结果。应用以上评价方法对贵阳市4个交叉口进行评价，结果表明，所提模型更充分地凸显了指标的重要性；以国家城市交通运行状况评价规范和现有组合赋权模型的评价结果为基准，对模型的有效性进行评估，所提模型评价结果的准确度分别为75.95%和96.61%，且结果的区分度更大更符合实际交通路况。综上，所提模型同时具备实用性和有效性，对交叉口运行状态的评估和预警具有一定的指导意义。

Abstract: In order to improve the comprehensive and accurate results of road intersections traffic status comprehensive evaluation, based on the least squares thought and moment estimation theory, an improved least squares integrated weighting model is established to better compensate for the limitations of a single weighting model and the index importance information reflected in the re-sults of single weighting is retained to the maximum extent. On this basis, comprehensive evalua-tion results of each intersection status are obtained by calculating the combination weight-membership matrix. The above evaluation method is used to evaluate four intersections in Guiyang, and the empowerment and evaluation results show that the improved model gives full play to the importance of the indicators. The effectiveness of the model is evaluated based on the evaluation results of the national urban traffic operation status evaluation standard and the exist-ing combined weighting models, and the accuracy of the evaluation results based on the proposed model is 75.95% and 96.61%, respectively, and the evaluation results are more discriminative and more in line with the actual traffic conditions. To sum up, the intersections traffic status evaluation method proposed is both practical and effective, and has certain guiding significance for the evalua-tion and early warning of intersections traffic status.