我国科技型中小企业信用风险评估及信贷应用
Exploration and Creidt Application of Credit Risk Assessment for Science and Technology-Based SMEs in China
DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2023.131023, PDF,   
作者: 李亚宣:北京大学软件与微电子学院,北京;窦文章*:北京大学软件与微电子学院,北京;北京大学战略研究所,北京
关键词: 信用风险评估科技型中小企业KMV模型RAROC模型Credit Risk Assessment Technology-Based SMEs KMV Model RAROC Model
摘要: 本文针对科技型中小企业,构建了修订的KMV模型,并进行统计计量分析,验证了模型的预测效果。之后,将模型的结果应用于RAROC模型中进行贷款定价,并以A公司为例进行案例分析。结果表明,修订的KMV模型能够对我们科技型中小企业的信用风险进行有效识别和度量,将其结果应用于贷款定价中,将有助于提高企业与银行之间的信息透明度,缓解科技型中小企业融资问题,提高商业银行风险管理水平。
Abstract: In this paper, a revised KMV model is constructed for technology-based SMEs, and statistical-econometric analysis is performed to verify the predictive effect of the model. After that, the results of the model are applied to the RAROC model for loan pricing, and a case study is conducted with Company A as an example. The results show that the revised KMV model can effectively identify and measure the credit risk of our technology-based SMEs, and applying the results to loan pricing will help improve the information transparency between enterprises and banks, alleviate the financing problems of technology-based SMEs, and improve the risk management of commercial banks.
文章引用:李亚宣, 窦文章. 我国科技型中小企业信用风险评估及信贷应用[J]. 金融, 2023, 13(1): 228-239. https://doi.org/10.12677/FIN.2023.131023

参考文献

[1] Altman, E.I. (1968) Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23, 589-609. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[2] Black, F. and Scholes, M. (1972) The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 27, 399-417. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[3] Merton, R.C. (1973) Theory of Rational Option Pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 4, 141-183. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[4] Jarrow, R. and Turnbull, S. (1991) A Unified Approach for Pricing Contingent Claims on Multiple Term Structures: The Foreign Currency Anal-ogy. Working Paper, Cornell University, Ithaca.
[5] Gordy, M.B. (1998) A Comparative Anatomy of Credit Risk Models. Finance & Economics Discussion, 24, 119-149. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[6] Dahiya, S., Handa, S.S. and Singh, N.P. (2015) Credit Scoring Using Ensemble of Various Classifiers on Reduced Feature Set. Industrija, 43, 163-172. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[7] Pederzoli, C., Thoma, G. and Torricelli, C. (2013) Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: The Role of Innovation Measures. Journal of Financial Services Research, 44, 111-129. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[8] Huang, Z., Yan, Z.F., Zhao, Q.Z. and Ma, K.K. (2021) Credit Risk Assessment in Bank Based on SMEs Using PCA. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1848, Article ID: 012071. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[9] McQuown, J.A. (1993) A Comment on Market vs. Accounting-Based Measures of Default Risk. Moody’s KMV Corporation, 16-34.
[10] Blochwitz, S., Liebig, T. and Nyberg, M. (2000) Benchmarking Deutsche Bundesbank’s Default Risk Model, the KMV Private Firm Model and Common Financial Ratios for German Corporations. Workshop on Applied Banking Research, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/events/oslo/liebigblo.pdf
[11] 范黎波, 贾军, 贾立. 供应链金融模式下中小企业信用风险评级模型研究[J]. 国际经济合作, 2014(1): 90-94.
[12] 彭建刚, 吕志华. 基于行业特性的多元系统风险因子CreditRisk+模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2009, 17(3): 56-64. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[13] 霍海涛. 高科技中小企业信用风险指标体系及其评价方法[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2012, 14(1): 60-65. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[14] 卿固, 辛超群, 王维维. 科技型中小企业信用风险评估研究——以辽宁省为例[J]. 吉林金融研究, 2015(8): 13-18.
[15] 陈倩, 张目. 基于KMV模型的科技型中小企业违约概率预测研究[J]. 科技创业月刊, 2017, 30(13): 17-20.
[16] 徐惠, 胡颖. 上市中小科技企业信用风险测度分析[J]. 内江师范学院学报, 2019, 34(8): 53-59. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef
[17] 闫海峰, 华雯君. 基于KMV模型的中国上市公司信用风险研究[J]. 产业经济研究, 2009(3): 14-22.
[18] 张能福, 张佳. 改进的KMV模型在我国上市公司信用风险度量中的应用[J]. 预测, 2010, 29(5): 67-71.
[19] 李磊宁, 张凯. KMV模型的修正及在我国上市公司信用风险度量中的应用[J]. 金融纵横, 2007(13): 48-50+34.
[20] 史小坤, 陈昕. 商业银行信用风险管理的KMV模型及其修正[J]. 南京财经大学学报, 2010(4): 47-51.
[21] 杨永生, 周子元. 资产价值增长率在企业信用风险评估中的应用[J]. 经济问题探索, 2010(7): 93-98.