基于ESDA的小流域城市带碳足迹时空分布及影响因素分析——以闽江流域经济带为例

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Carbon Footprints and Influencing Factors in Small Watershed Urban Belts Based on ESDA—Taking the Minjiang River Basin Economic Belt as an Example

摘要: 为正确把握生态环境保护和经济发展的关系，为构建闽江流域经济带提供理论依据，以闽江流域33个县区为研究区域构建经济发展指数和碳足迹指标核算体系评价闽江流域的经济–生态系统，通过空间自相关分析碳排放空间分异情况，并基于GTWR模型分析碳足迹指数的影响因素。实证结果显示，2012~2017年约有38%的区县RC值 > 1，区域生态承载超过应承受的水平，虽然总体上全域生态系统承载能力较强，但呈现出弱化趋势；碳足迹指数空间布局上呈现出多个热力值，区域经济发展与碳排放存在空间分布的不平衡性；农业活动、固定资产投资和能源消费是对碳足迹指数波动的主要贡献因素。因此，在构造闽江经济带的过程中，碳足迹水平较高的区域既要发展经济，又要保护生态环境，碳排放控制与碳汇吸收应同步进行；流域范围内，需推进低碳经济的发展模式，应不断提升城镇化水平，优化能源使用配置，提升农业生产力水平，才能实现绿水青山。

Abstract: In order to correctly grasp the relationship between ecological environmental protection and economic development and provide a theoretical basis for the construction of the Minjiang River Basin Economic Belt, the economic development index and carbon footprint index accounting system were constructed to evaluate the economic-ecological system of the Minjiang River Basin using 33 counties and districts in the Minjiang River Basin as the study area, analyze the spatial variation of carbon emissions through spatial autocorrelation, and analyze the influencing factors of the carbon footprint index based on the GTWR model. The empirical results show that about 38% of the districts and counties have RC values > 1 from 2012 to 2017, the regional ecological carrying capacity exceeds the level that should be borne, and although the overall carrying capacity of the region-wide ecosystem is strong, it shows a trend of weakening; the spatial layout of the carbon footprint index shows multiple heat values, and there is an imbalance in the spatial distribution of regional economic development and carbon emissions; agricultural activities, fixed asset investment and energy consumption are the main contributors to the fluctuation of the carbon footprint index. Therefore, in the process of constructing the Minjiang River Economic Zone, regions with high carbon footprint levels should both develop their economy and protect the ecological environment, and carbon emission control and carbon sink absorption should be carried out simultaneously; within the basin, the development model of the low-carbon economy needs to be promoted, and the level of urbanization should be continuously improved, the allocation of energy use should be optimized, and the level of agricultural productivity should be enhanced in order to achieve green water and green mountains.