人口老龄化对城市居民储蓄的影响分析——以山东省为例

Analysis of the Impact of Population Aging on Urban Residents’ Savings—A Case Study of Shandong Province

摘要: 随着生活质量的提高，人口老龄化问题在中国甚至世界都占据着极为重要的地位。基于此，本文探究人口老龄化对城市居民储蓄的作用影响机制。本文以山东省作为主要研究对象，选取山东省2000年~2019年以来的居民人均储蓄余额、山东省地区生产总值、城市居民可支配收入、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比建立时间序列模型进行实证分析，最后得出实证结果，进而对山东省的人口老龄化问题提出可行的政策建议。本文首先对人口老龄化、居民储蓄的有关概念、理论进行了阐述，其次就人口老龄化、及居民储蓄的发展现状及优缺点进行一定的阐述，之后建立模型进行实证分析。以山东省地区生产总值、城市居民可支配收入、少儿抚养比、老年抚养比作为解释变量，居民人均储蓄余额作为被解释变量，选取山东省2000~2019年数据建立时间序列模型进行实证分析，对数据进行分析整理，以此确定人口老龄化对居民储蓄的作用影响，及居民收入对居民储蓄的影响作用。文章根据实证分析所得出的结果，对山东省人口老龄化问题提出有关的意见和建议，对于山东省缓解人口老龄化现状，更好地发展养老产业、服务业经济有着重大意义。

Abstract: With the improvement in the quality of life, the problem of population aging occupies a very important position in China and even in the world. Based on this, this paper explores the influence mechanism of population aging on urban residents' savings. This paper selects Shandong Province as the main research object, selects the per capita savings balance of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2019, the GDP of Shandong Province, the disposable income of urban residents, the dependency ratio of children and the dependency ratio of the elderly to establish a time series model for empirical analysis, and finally obtains the empirical results, and then puts forward feasible policy suggestions on the aging of the population in Shandong Province. This paper first expounds on the concepts and theories of population aging and residents’ savings, then expounds on the development status, advantages and disadvantages of population aging and residents’ savings, and then establishes a model for empirical analysis. Taking Shandong Province’s GDP, urban residents’ disposable income, children’s dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio as explanatory variables, and residents’ per capita savings balance as interpreted variable, this paper selects Shandong Province’s 2000~2019 data to establish a time series model for empirical analysis, and analyzes the data, so as to determine the effect of population aging on Residents’ savings and residents’ income The impact on savings. According to the results of the empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some opinions and suggestions on the problem of population aging in Shandong Province, which is of great significance to alleviate the current situation of population aging in Shandong Province and better develop the pension industry and service industry economy.