江苏省城镇职工基本医疗保险基金预测分析——基于GM(1,1)模型

Forecast Analysis of Basic Medical Insurance Fund for Urban Workers in Jiangsu Province—Based on GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 目的：预测2021~2030年共十年江苏省城镇职工医疗保险基金收支情况。方法：基于灰色系统理论，收集2011~2020年期间的江苏省城镇职工基本医疗保险基金相关数据，建立江苏省城镇职工医保基金收支的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。结果：2021~2030年江苏省城镇职工医保基金收入和支出规模逐年扩大，基金结余率每年均达到15%以上水平。研究意义：为区域职工医保基金收支平衡的管理和基金结余水平的提升，提供科学依据，促进江苏省城镇职工医保基金健康稳定地发展。

Abstract: Objective: To predict the income and expenditure of medical insurance fund for urban workers in Jiangsu Province from 2021 to 2030. Methods: Based on the grey system theory, the data of the basic medical insurance fund for urban workers in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2020 were collected, and the GM(1,1) grey prediction model was established. Results: From 2021 to 2030, the income and expenditure of medical insurance fund for urban workers in Jiangsu Province will expand year by year, and the fund balance rate will reach more than 15% every year. Research significance: To provide scientific basis for the management of the balance of income and expenditure of regional employee medical insurance fund and the improvement of fund balance level, and to promote the healthy and stable development of urban employee medical insurance fund in Jiangsu Province.