广西出口贸易发展与经济增长的关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Guangxi’s Export Trade Development and Economic Growth

摘要: 广西拥有与东盟陆海相连这一先天优势，在国家发展战略中的地位和作用日渐提升，凭借着优越的地缘优势和政策优势，出口贸易整体呈现稳步上升趋势。本文以1990~2020年广西出口开放度、汇率、商品零售价格指数、全社会固定资产投资指数、城镇单位在岗职工平均工资绝对数、人均产出为研究指标，通过平稳性检验、Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数等方法，探讨广西出口贸易与经济增长的关系。结果发现，这些指标之间存在四个长期协整关系，且经济发展水平和商品的销售对汇率具有显著影响，此外汇率、城镇单位在岗职工平均工资绝对数、商品零售价格指数、全社会固定资产投资指数都是逐渐增长，贡献度也是呈增长趋势，说明这些变量对广西出口贸易发展具有长久影响。广西应抓住“一带一路”机遇，利用自身的地理优势，大力发展出口贸易，平衡贸易与经济的均衡关系，促进出口贸易与经济增长。

Abstract: Guangxi has the innate advantage of being connected with ASEAN by land and sea, and its position and role in national development strategy are gradually improving. With superior geographical advantages and policy advantages, the overall export trade shows a steadily rising trend. This paper takes Guangxi’s export openness, exchange rate, commodity retail price index, fixed asset investment index of the whole society, the absolute number of average wage of employees in urban units and output per capita as the research index from 1990 to 2020. Through stationary test, Johansen co-integration test, impulse response function and other methods, to explore the relationship between export trade and economic growth in Guangxi. The results show that there are four long-term co-integration relationships among these indicators, and the level of economic development and the sales of commodities have a significant impact on the exchange rate. In addition, the exchange rate, the absolute number of the average wage of employees in urban units, the retail price index of commodities, and the fixed assets investment index of the whole society all increase gradually, and their contribution also shows an increasing trend. It shows that these variables have a long-term influence on the development of Guangxi’s export trade. Guangxi should seize the opportunity of “One Belt and One Road”, make use of its geographical advantages, vigorously develop export trade, balance the balanced relationship between trade and economy, and promote export trade and economic growth.