人口老龄化对中国居民住房需求影响研究——基于CGSS2017数据实证分析

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand of Chinese Residents—Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2017 Data

摘要: 人口老龄化问题吸引了越来越多人关注的目光，同时成为社会关注度较高的普遍共识。近年来，中国老年人口的比例逐渐增加，房地产市场正在发生巨大变化。因此，人口老龄化对住房需求的影响日益突出。在人口老龄化、家庭结构和住房需求之间关系的理论基础上，本文基于CGSS2017数据基础上首次构建了中国人口老龄化和家庭结构对住房需求影响的系统动力学模型。然后，对模型进行了模拟，并建立了人口、家庭结构和房地产政策的几个场景。本文的主要结论如下：中国人口将先增加后减少，到2023年达到峰值14.01亿。随着老年人口比例的增加，人口老龄化程度日益严重。到2050年，家庭规模将逐渐缩小到每户2.39人。住房需求将先增加后减少。通过情景模拟结果，本文提出了全面放松计划生育政策、开征房地产税、取消预售政策、提高贷款利率等有效平衡中国住房需求的建议。

Abstract: The issue of population aging has attracted more and more people’s attention, and has become a common consensus with high social attention. In recent years, the proportion of the elderly population in China has gradually increased, and the real estate market is undergoing tremendous changes. Therefore, the impact of population aging on housing demand is increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of China’s popu-lation aging and family structure on housing demand for the first time based on CGSS2017 data. Then, the model is simulated and several scenarios of population, family structure and real estate policy are established. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China’s population will increase first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. By 2050, the family size will gradually reduce to 2.39 people per household. The demand for housing will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of the scenario simulation, this paper puts forward some suggestions to effectively balance China’s housing demand, such as comprehensively relaxing the family planning policy, imposing real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan interest rate.