边疆省份金融市场的发展与经济增长的研究——以云南省为例

Research on the Development of Financial Market and Economic Growth in Border Provinces: A Case Study of Yunnan Province

摘要: 《滇中城市群发展规划》于2020年8月26日印发，规划中明确指出要把滇中城市群建立成为面向南亚以及东南亚辐射中心的核心区域，要实现此目标就要加强经济建设，而经济增长不可或缺的因素之一是金融市场的发展。本文对云南省1995~2019年年度时间序列数据进行研究，分析了云南省经济增长与金融市场的发展关系，利用R软件对时间序列数据进行了ADF单位根检验、回归残差协整检验和Granger因果关系检验。研究结果表明，云南省金融市场的发展对经济增长的促进作用不明显。根据分析结果提出提高云南省金融相关率，注重经济发展的同时也要注重金融市场的发展等促进经济增长的建议与对策。

Abstract: The Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration Development Plan, issued on August 26, 2020, clearly states that to establish the central Yunnan urban agglomeration as a core area facing South Asia and Southeast Asia, to achieve this goal, it is necessary to strengthen economic construction, and one of the indispensable factors for economic growth is the development of financial markets. In this paper, the annual time series data of Yunnan Province from 1995 to 2019 are studied, the relationship between economic growth and financial market development in Yunnan Province is analyzed, and the ADF unit root test, regression residual cointegration test and Granger causality test are performed on the time series data by R software. The results show that the development of the financial market in Yunnan Province does not have an obvious role in promoting economic growth. According to the analysis results, suggestions and countermeasures to promote economic growth are proposed, such as improving the financial correlation rate in Yunnan Province and paying attention to the development of the financial market at the same time.