甘肃省城市收缩现象识别及影响因素研究

Identification and Influencing Factors of Urban Contraction in Gansu Province

摘要: 近年来，主要表现为人口流失的城市收缩现象已成为一个全球性问题，并引起了学术界的广泛关注。随着中国总人口的缓慢增长甚至出现减少的现象，部分城市已进入收缩时代。对地级行政单元和县级行政单元的城市进行收缩分析，有助于识别各地区的收缩现象，了解其发展趋势和影响因素。本文以甘肃省为例，根据第六次和第七次全国人口普查的数据及各自年份下的数据，按照人口、经济和社会三个维度下的指标数据，从地级市和县(市、区)两个层面对甘肃省进行收缩识别，对影响城市收缩的背景因素进行定量分析。结果显示，2010年至2020年期间，甘肃省地级市和县(市、区)的城市出现大幅度收缩，陇中地区和陇东南地区存在广泛的收缩，普遍为轻度和中度的收缩，而河西地区的部分城市收缩最为严重。研究发现城市经济发展水平、城镇化进程、人口的年龄结构和个人追求匹配度是影响甘肃省城市收缩的主要因素。

Abstract: In recent years, the phenomenon of urban contraction, which is mainly manifested in population loss, has become a global problem and attracted wide attention of the academic circle. With the slow growth or even decline of China’s total population, some cities have entered an era of contraction. It is helpful to identify the shrinkage phenomenon of the cities in the district and county administrative units, and to understand the development trend and influencing factors. This paper takes Gansu province as an example, according to the data of the 6th and 7th national population census and the data of each year, according to the index data of the three dimensions of population, economy and society, this paper identifies the shrinkage of Gansu province from two levels of prefecture-level city and county (city and district), and makes quantitative analysis on the background factors affecting urban shrinkage. The results show that between 2010 and 2020, cities at the prefectural level and counties (cities and districts) in Gansu Province show substantial contraction, and there is extensive contraction, generally mild and moderate, in the Longzhong and Longdongnan regions, while some cities in the Hexi region contract most severely. It is found that the urban economic development level, urbanization process, population age structure and individual pursuit matching are the main factors affecting the urban contraction in Gansu province.