安居才乐育：住房产权对生育意愿的影响研究

Live in Peace and Enjoy Education: Research on the Impact of Housing Property Rights on Fertility Intention

摘要: 近年来我国人口生育率一直处于较低水平，跨越“低生育率陷阱”是政府工作的当务之急。住房状况是影响育龄人群生育意愿的重要因素，本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2018年微观数据，实证检验了住房产权对育龄人群生育意愿的影响，以及住房产权作用的异质性。研究发现：拥有住房产权能够显著提升育龄人群的生育意愿水平，在使用工具变量克服可能存在的内生性问题后依然显著，通过更换被解释变量和缩尾等方法进行稳健性检验后这种促进作用依然存在。进一步的异质性分析发现，拥有住房产权更多提升了城镇、女性和多套房产育龄人群的生育意愿水平。本文的研究发现验证了“安居”对“乐育”的积极影响，为我国制定相关住房政策促进生育意愿释放、调整人口年龄结构和实现经济社会可持续发展提供了经验证据。

Abstract: In recent years, China’s fertility rate has been at a relatively low level, and it is a top priority for the government to overcome the “low fertility trap”. Housing status is an important factor that affects the fertility intention of people of childbearing age. Based on the 2018 micro-data of China Family Tracking Survey (CFPS), this paper empirically tests the impact of housing property rights on the fertility intention of people of childbearing age, and the heterogeneity of the role of housing property rights. The study found that owning housing property rights can significantly improve the level of fertility desire of people of childbearing age, which is still significant after using instrumental variables to overcome possible endogenous problems, and this promotion still exists after the robustness test by replacing the explained variables and shrinking the tail. Further heterogeneity analysis found that owning housing property rights increased the level of fertility desire of urban, women and people of childbearing age with multiple housing estates. The research findings of this paper verify the positive impact of “safe living” on “happy education”, and provide empirical evidence for China to formulate relevant housing policies to promote the release of fertility will, adjust the population age structure and achieve sustainable economic and social development.