上海市养老从业人员供给趋势预测与建议——基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)

Forecast and Suggestions for the Supply Trend of Elderly Care Workers in Shanghai—Based on the Gray Prediction Model GM(1,1)

摘要: 随着我国人口老龄化程度的持续加深，养老服务需求迅速扩张，我国养老服务业面临着人力资源供需矛盾突出的挑战。养老从业人员是提高养老服务质量的关键资源，其作为养老事业发展的保障，对养老服务、老年人生活质量的发展和提高至关重要。本文基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)，从养老从业人员的供给侧着手，对其发展趋势进行预测并提出具有针对性的对策建议，以期更好地对上海市养老从业人员供需状况进行判断分析，促进养老服务发展，提高老年人生活质量。

Abstract: With the continuous deepening of China’s aging population and the rapid expansion of demand for elderly care services, China’s elderly care service industry is facing the challenge of prominent contradiction between supply and demand of human resources. Elderly care workers are the key resources to improve the quality of elderly care services, and as a guarantee for the development of elderly care services, they are crucial to the development and improvement of elderly care services and the quality of life of the elderly. Based on the grey prediction model GM(1,1), this paper predicts the development trend of elderly care workers from the supply side of them and puts forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions, in order to better judge and analyze the supply and demand of elderly care workers in Shanghai, promote the development of elderly care services, and improve the quality of life of the elderly.