基于灰色GM(1, 1)模型的商丘市人口老龄化发展趋势研究
Research on the Development Trend of Population Aging in Shangqiu City Based on Grey GM(1, 1) Model
摘要: 目的：预测商丘市65岁及以上老年人口的变化情况，为商丘市相关部门制定和完善积极老龄化政策提供参考。方法：数据选自2011~2020年河南省统计年鉴、河南省国民经济和社会发展统计公报中商丘市数据，采用GM(1, 1)模型，对商丘市65岁及以上老年人口的变化趋势进行分析。结论：预测结果显示，商丘市65岁及以上老年人口数量呈持续上升趋势，到2030年即将突破180万人。
Abstract:
Objective: To predict the changes of the elderly population aged 65 and above in Shangqiu City, and to provide reference for the relevant departments to formulate and improve the active aging policy. Methods: The data were selected from the statistical yearbook of Henan Province from 2011 to 2020 and the statistical bulletin of national economic and social development of Henan Province. The GM(1, 1) model was used to analyze the trend of the elderly population aged 65 and above in Shangqiu City. Conclusion: The prediction results show that the number of elderly people aged 65 and above in Shangqiu City continues to rise, and will exceed 1.8 million by 2030.
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