基于灰色GM(1,1)模型预测分析内蒙古自治区2021~2027年卫生总费用

Forecast Analysis of Total Health Expenditure in Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2027 Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 基于灰色系统理论，收集2011~2020年期间的内蒙古自治区卫生总费用数据，建立内蒙古卫生总费用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，预测2021~2027年共七年内蒙古卫生总费用及其筹资结构。使用MATLAB软件对内蒙古卫生总费用筹资水平与筹资结构及其占GDP比重进行分析并输出结果。分析预计内蒙古医疗总费用及其占GDP比例会持续提高，政府、个人卫生费用比重持续下降，个人健康费用比重也会持续提高。通过分析未来七年的医疗健康情况，对全区卫生保健经费制度、投资标准和结构调整提出科学依据，推动内蒙古医疗卫生事业蓬勃发展。

Abstract: Based on the grey system theory, the data of the total health expenditure in Inner Mongolia during 2011~2020 were collected, and the grey prediction model GM(1,1) of the total health expenditure in Inner Mongolia was established to predict the total health cost and its financing structure for seven years from 2021 to 2027. MATLAB software was used to analyze the financing level, financing structure and the proportion of total health expenditure in GDP of Inner Mongolia and output the results. The study predicts that the total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP of Inner Mongolia will continue to increase, the proportion of government and personal health expenditure will continue to decrease, and the proportion of social health expenditure will be greatly increased. By forecasting the health data in the next seven years, it can provide scientific basis for regional health expenditure management, financing level and structure optimization, and promote the development of health expenditure in Inner Mongolia.