草原放牧策略研究

Research on Grassland Grazing Strategies

摘要: 草原面积辽阔，是世界上分布最广的陆地植被类型之一，合理的草原放牧策略是拉动经济增长和保障民生的关键，科学合理的放牧形式是维护生态平衡、造福人类的重要手段。本文选取的单因子方差分析能考虑到全部的样本数据，检验过程较为简易，能规避t检验可能带来的错误累积的概率；由于传统的ARIMA模型进行预测的误差较大，采用加法季节模型或乘积季节模型来预测土壤中各种化学成分的含量，预测的准确性高，贴合现实情况，对于草原放牧策略的研究与应用、降水量与土壤、植被等的相关影响具有一定的参考价值和实际意义。

Abstract: The grassland covers a vast area and is one of the most widely distributed land vegetation types in the world. Reasonable grassland grazing strategy is the key to driving economic growth and ensur-ing people’s livelihood. Scientific and reasonable grazing form is an important means to maintain ecological balance and benefit mankind. The one-way ANOVA selected in this paper can take into account all the sample data, and the test process is relatively simple, which can avoid the probabil-ity of error accumulation caused by the t test; Due to the large error of the traditional ARIMA model in prediction, the additive season model or the product season model is used to predict the content of various chemical components in the soil, which has high accuracy and is close to the actual situa-tion. It has certain reference value and practical significance for the research and application of grassland grazing strategy, and the related impact of precipitation and soil, vegetation, etc.